The First-In-the-Nation Presidential Caucus has arrived! One of the earliest and one of the coldest caucuses of all time, Iowans will be battling frigid temperatures on their way to fulfill their civil obligations. I’ve always had a bit of a soft spot for caucuses: the need to stay for hours in a school gymnasium, city hall, or library to argue and make the case for your candidate is one of the purest forms of democracy we have in America.
40 delegates will be at stake tonight. The eventual GOP nominee will need 1,215 out of 2,429 delegates. The importance of Iowa will rest not in the number of delegates awarded, but the narrative or narratives that come out of it. For the next week, all the pundits will be talking about Iowa and how that will affect New Hampshire’s primary (Jan 23rd), which will lead into February 8th’s Nevada and US Virgin Islands Caucuses and South Carolina’s primary on February 24th.
Paid subscribers will have exclusive access to my analysis article on Wednesday, as Thursday I’ll be covering the union victories in 2023. Saturday will be my first-ever Short Story Saturday!
Ann Seltzer’s traditional pre-caucus poll came out over the weekend and it painted a commanding lead for Trump with 48% of the vote. I actually think he will slightly overperform due to the weather. Haley’s supporters are disproporiately more Democratic or independent but feel the least strong about her out of the top three.
I think Haley is most likely to underperform due to the weather. Given she is also polarizing in the Iowa GOP electorate, I don’t think she will hit her estimate. Ann Seltzer has made fools of people far more experienced and smarter than me-and I fully expect that to continue!
I go into tonight expecting Trump to end with 52% of the vote, DeSantis with 20%, Haley 15%, and Ramaswamy with 6%. I’m assuming there will be several with around 1-2% of the vote.
At the end of the day, all we can do is wait on our fellow citizens throughout the year as they vote for the nominees. I fully expect it to be a Biden-Trump rematch.
If you are feeling sad, hopeless, or angry, get involved. Action is the greatest cure for feeling powerless. You don’t have to be a rockstar or do it all. If you can knock one packet of doors for two hours once a week, you will have moved mountains. If you bring food to the office, you will have nourished the spirits and stomachs of democracy’s soldiers. If you are strong with technology and have a knack for social media, targeting low-propensity voters in your county may provide the difference.
You are the hope that you’ve been waiting for. You are the calvary. Democracy, my friends, is a verb. I’ll see you on doors.
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