After the Debate, It's Time to Expand the Map

The Vice President absolutely torched Trump on Tuesday night and some voters are actually reconsidering their vote. Combined with Taylor Swift’s endorsement immediately after the debate’s closing statements, the political landscape is a little more open than usual. There’s only 53 days till Election Day. In just under eight weeks from today, people will be voting and the whole country will be watching with bated breath.

Photo credit: ABC News

To set herself up for the greatest possible success, Kamala should consider expanding the map. It’s not just about the White House-for her agenda to have any chance to pass, she needs a Democratic Senate-which necessitates playing in redder states.

Future ad reservations in swing states compiled by AdImpact Politics

270toWin’s Consensus Electoral Map

For those of you keeping track, the key Senate seats are in Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Of those, Kari Lake is imploding in Arizona, Tammy Baldwin is leading in Wisconsin, and Bob Casey will sail to another win in Pennsylvania. Jacky Rosen is also looking strong in Nevada. Eilssa Slotkin is polling consistently ahead of Mike Rogers in Michigan.

Graphic by AdImpact Politics

Sherrod Brown is doing well against Bernie Moreno in Ohio but political gravity may be catching up to Jon Tester in Montana. While Tester has pulled out wins before, the clock may be striking midnight in Big Sky. Should that happen, the Republicans would have a 51-49 advantage (should the Senate end in a 50-50 tie, the Vice President would have the tiebreaking vote).

If Tester loses, this is the most likely Senate map

While Texas and Florida are the most obvious next tier, they are also the most expensive. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is within striking distance of Rick Scott, as is Colin Allred of Ted Cruz. Outside of Ohio and Montana, I think that both of these states are the most likely ones to potentially split their ticket, but it’ll be close. Florida is getting redder and Texas is getting bluer. It is possible one or both Democratic Senate candidates do just well enough to outrun the Harris in their state and win.

The last two states where additional money could theoretically boost Senate candidates are in Nebraska and Missouri. Lucas Kunce is trailing Josh Hawley by 11% in a recent YouGov poll but with three constitutional amendments on the ballot, perhaps a minor miracle could happen. Nebraska has two Senate elections; the special election features Republican Deb Fischer vs a labor organizer Independent Dan Osborn and the other has former Governor Pete Ricketts squaring off against Preston Love. Osborn is by far the more likely to win than Preston Love and would in all likelihood caucus with the Democrats. His labor organizing skills and Independent label are cutting across the traditional partisan lines and might be just enough to win.

If the goal is to catch lighting in a bottle in a longshot bid to retain the Senate majority, Democrats must cast as wide a net as possible. By elevating herself in these states, the hope is that it would bring more voters into the fold and force Trump to draw money away from Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, and other states. Campaigns are all about staffing, money, time, and other finite resources. I do not envy any campaign manager in nailbitingly close races.

As of now, the Harris campaign will be outspending Trump by over $100M in ads between now and Election Day, which is why we can talk about expanding the map so much. A big chunk of that will come from August’s fundraising haul, where she raised over $360M, nearly tripling Trump’s total. None of these totals take into account SuperPACs or other non-campaign organization totals.

Washington Post’s average national lead tracker

But the Harris campaign shouldn’t limit itself just to Senate states. It should build for the future.

The Midwest, for example, votes as a bloc more than any other cultural region in the country. A quarter million dollars or half a million in ad buys would go a long way to breathing new energy into Iowa, for example. A few million in Kansas would help buttress Governor Laura Kelly’s potential threepeat attempt, following her re-election in 2022.

Kansas Governor Laura Kelly (D)

If you include the Great Plains with the western portion of the Midwest, you get the the swingiest part of the country. Friend of the blog Zac Harmon did an excellent job laying out the facts in a thread, which you can read here.

Investing in some of these states, even ones where we know Kamala will lose, forces Trump to play defense. In The Art of War, which I maintain is the greatest book on political campaign theory ever written, Sun Tzu writes “If you know your adversary and you know yourself, you need not fear the outcome of a hundred battles” and “The fastest way to ensure victory is to sow discord in the house of your enemies.”

We know who Trump is because he has shown himself to us: he is a narcissistic, entitled bully who relies on projection to feel strong. If we play in deep red states, he will feel forced to respond, which would continue to draw money away from the swing states.

The next seven-plus weeks will be long and hard, but it will be worth it. If you’d like to cast your vote early, check how to do so at vote.gov. If you’d like to get involved, call your county party. Action, no matter how small, will reduce your anxiety and make democracy really feel like a verb.

I’ll see you on doors.