Florida Republicans Put Florida in Play for November
April 1st, 2024
Despite the date, that’s no joke.
Earlier today, the Florida State Supreme Court stripped away a woman’s right to choose while simultaneously approving abortion and marijuana legalization referenda to appear on the November ballot. Florida is the 22nd state to completely ban or limit abortion access under 16 weeks since the U.S. Supreme Court issued the Dobbs ruling. This decision by Florida’s high court means that the 15-week abortion ban is now law and DeSantis’s six-week ban will take effect soon.
The Court claimed that “there is no basis in the Privacy Clause” to uphold a woman’s right to abortion. This flies in the face of established precedent and case law. Under Florida law, 60% of the electorate must vote in favor of the referendum, known as Amendment 4, to become part of the state constitution and uphold abortion rights.
The second referendum the Florida Supreme Court approved, the legalization of recreational marijuana, will similarly exist on the ballot alongside Amendment 4. It will also need to reach the 60% threshold to become law. Should this amendment pass, it would allow any adult over the age of 21 to purchase marijuana for personal use. Florida first legalized medical marijuana in 2014 for terminal patients, expanding the usage to full-strength marijuana strains in 2016. In 2017, the medical marijuana law was dramatically expanded to include many chronic diseases.
Despite setbacks to fully legalization for recreational use over the years, organizers are confident. Over 70% of all voters support the full legalization of marijuana, making it one of the most bipartisan and popular issues nationwide. In Florida, 57% approve of legalization, well within striking distance of the requisite supermajority.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signs 15 week abortion ban in 2022. Photo credit: CNN
In the immediate term, Florida’s women are going to face terrible decisions when it comes to handling their own healthcare. The nearest states without abortion restrictions are New Mexico, Kansas, Virginia, and Maryland. This ruling follows the pattern of reactionary courts attempting to relegate women to second-class citizens.
Abortion limits by state. Photo credit: NYT
While Florida has enjoyed the status of a swing state for decades, many have come to believe that Florida is a red state, despite the end margins being very close. In 2020, Trump expanded his victory margin from 1.2% in 2016 to 3.4%. The Florida Democratic Party has not exactly helped its case, leading others to hope that this is a leadership issue and the state is not out of reach.
In March, Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried made the bizarre decision to cancel the Presidential Preference Primary despite many local races at risk, losing several. This comes after suspending or removing three county party chairs seven months before the what is the biggest election of our lives. It is no secret that 2016, 2020, and 2024 all have had increasing stakes.
While the post-Dobbs political landscape is still being understood and studied, there is no doubt that this has energized traditional low-turnout voters and pushed many voters into the Democratic camp. In focus groups and in election results, we have continued to see that attacks on women’s healthcare have gone too far and, alongside the rampant election denialism in the GOP, are immediate dealbreakers for many voters.
Should Florida flip blue, not only will this send a signal that Florida is not entirely lost, but it will almost certainly ensure Trump’s defeat and be a Senate pickup where Democrats will be hard-pressed to remain in control of the Senate. Operating under the assumption that Trump wins back Georgia and the Rust Belt but loses Florida, it’s game over:
He would have to win Arizona or Nevada. If Biden retains Georgia or Trump loses North Carolina, the best of bad play might be hoping Minnesota flips, but I would not bet on that.
When it comes to the Senate, should the chronic underperformer Rick Scott go down, Democrats could lose Ohio or Montana and retain the majority:
In any case, Florida is poised to come down to a photo finish yet again. The stakes are high.
On Wednesday, I will be releasing a “Takeaways” piece covering the results and lessons for Wisconsin’s presidential primary and spring election. You can read it if you join the ranks of paid subscribers for as little as $5/mo or $50/year. Sign up below to support your favorite working class election and political analyst!