"....It'll Be Some Damn Fool Thing in the Balkans"

February 29th, 2024

Otto Von Bismarck told Kaiser Wilhelm II that the Great War would be sparked by a fluke event in the those recently independent countries and that the death of the German Empire would come twenty years after his death “if things carried on in their present state.” He died in July 1898.

While the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand and his wife Sofie by Gavrilo Princip was the spark that ignited the tinderbox of war, there were a multitude of reasons that led to the Seminal Tragedy. The one that I see as most apt to America’s current position is the Anglo-German Naval Arms Race. The birth of the German Empire after the Franco-Prussian War immediately made it one of the most powerful nations in the world, forcing Great Britain to eventually reduce tensions and ally with its historical enemy, France.

So what exactly can the Anglo-German Naval Arms Race teach us about American security commitments?

In short: local versus global commitments.

Germany was concentrating its fleet buildup in the North Sea, whereas Britain was protecting the entire Empire (we’re ignoring the German East Asia Squadron; it was only a handful of ships). Likewise, while the Russian Federation, People’s Republic of China, and Houthis/Iran/terror organizations are all much smaller, they can bring all their firepower to bear in a single location. The United States doesn’t have that luxury; we have to defend North, Central, and South America; the Mediterranean and the Atlantic; the entire Indo-Pacific; and the Red Sea.

Credit: US Navy

So where are the current hot zones?

Middle East

Outside of the War in Gaza, the Houthi rebels in Yemen have been firing on Western shipping since November 2023. They claim to be loyal to the so-called “Iranian Axis of Resistance,” which puts them in the company of groups like Hezbollah and Hamas. The Houthi rebels are not easily placed in a camp of what they are for, but they do advertise what they are against: the United States, the West in general, Saudi Arabia, and Israel’s existence.

The United States has also launched strikes into Syria, Iraq, and Jordan over an attack that killed three U.S. soldiers, but in recent days, it appears as though Iran has encouraged the militias it supports to bring down the temperature and cease firing on American personnel. While the risk for direct confrontation with Iran seems to be slowly decreasing, such a conflict would not be short or easy-the country has a much larger population than Iraq and substantially better terrain for defense. A full-scale invasion would be a nightmare, far worse than Afghanistan or Iraq.

Europe

This is the area where paradoxically America has the most allies but could need to deploy the highest number of ground troops. While NATO’s collective defense policy (Article Five) has done its job of preventing a Soviet/Russian invasion since its inception in 1949, Putin has shown that he is ready to use military force to reabsorb former Soviet countries, starting with Ukraine. There is also a Russian-backed separatist region of Moldova, called Transnistria, which Putin may want to illegally annex next-potentially by force.

Presidents Obama, Trump, and Biden have been very clear to our European allies that they need to pick up the slack on their own defense spending. The Baltic nations (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania), Sweden, Finland, Poland, and Romania have answered this call in a major way. Romania is nicknamed “NATO’s Eastern Anchor,” the Baltic states are all in the top five contributors of military gear to Ukraine compared to their defense spending, and there’s a joke among U.S. soldiers that the only reason we have troops in Poland is to stop the Poles from burning Moscow to the ground. Poland will spend over 4% of its GPD on defense in 2024; America spends about 3.5%.

Obama and Biden repeatedly affirmed Article Five and that America would stand by our NATO allies. Trump has not. The nightmare scenario our Baltic and Eastern European allies face is this: a dozen Russian soldiers walk into a border city of Lithuania, Estonia, or Latvia. They claim it to be Russian and refuse to return to their border. Will America and the rest of NATO come to their defense if they invoke Article Five?

Source: CSIS

The Pacific

The People’s Republic of China is heavily modernizing and building its naval capability. Right now, it is hemmed in by American allies Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, The Philippines, and Vietnam in a geographic zone called the First Island Chain. The PRC has been stepping up exercises against Taiwan, testing its resolve and capabilities to defend its airspace. Taiwan has been likened to a knife pressed against the PRC’s throat; should Taiwan fall, the PRC will undisputedly hit world superpower status and break out into the greater Pacific, potentially setting up a future major war with the United States.

A hypothetical war with the People’s Republic would be primarily an air and naval conflict. While the People’s Liberation Army Navy (a ridiculous name for a naval force) has the most ships in its navy in the world, it has a fraction of the naval tonnage (fewer major warships). Additionally, the U.S. Navy is the only navy in the world that can project power unaided anywhere in the world.

America’s Pacific allies are rebuilding more enthusiastically than our European friends. Japan is rapidly expanding its capabilities, Australia is getting nuclear-powered submarines, and South Korea is holding more joint exercises with U.S. forces. Even The Philippines granted the U.S. more military basing rights to deter Beijing. The potential risks of a belligerent People’s Republic are too real for these nations.

The Worst-Case Scenario

Much like the Anglo-German Naval Arms Race, the British concern was not a one-on-one battle with the German Empire. Their concern was the entirety of the German High Seas Fleet against the British fleet in the North Sea. The British Empire ultimately decided to ally with France and build two dreadnoughts for every one the Germans built, increasing their naval superiority.

Likewise, the United States can beat any nation in a one-on-one war. We have the most powerful military in world history. However, should Russia and the PRC attempt to integrate the way that NATO has and build up their militaries in a coordinated manner, while also bringing in Iran and its proxies, we would be hard-pressed to single-handedly counter all those threats at once. Even with our European and Pacific allies, it would prove difficult.

This is not a solution that America can solve alone. We must have all our allies on hand and continue to apply diplomatic, economic, and military pressure when warranted to counter the threats posed by a rising PRC, bellicose Iran, and belligerent Putin. Containing each of these threats is the surest way to ensure that a major war doesn’t break out. That means that we need to continue to fund Ukraine and cannot abandon our friends. With hard work and a little luck, we need never fight a third world war.