The Curious Self-Immolation of State Republican Parties

March 13th, 2024

The Republican Party has a series of terrible problems, any one of which would be a major issue. Firstly, the RNC is totally subservient to him via his daughter-in-law Lara and stooge Michael Watley; secondly, the cash flow is cratering; thirdly, in actual election results (not polls) voters continue to reject both Trump and the GOP; and lastly, battleground state GOP parties are embroiled in civil war, engaging in bizarre tactics, or both. While you can reasonably point to other things like an unexpectedly high anti-Trump sentiment within the GOP primary, mounting legal bills/issues, or others, those top four affect every facet of the campaign to a greater degree.

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It is the state parties I want us to focus on today. For those who want to read my article last week on the Trump RNC takeover, click here.

State parties have a critically important part in our political landscape. Not only are they the repositories of professional political talent within a state, but they also aid in vetting candidates, deploying resources for races, training and equipping staff and candidates, and schedule caucuses for those states that have them. While some county parties do successful fundraising programs of their own (Waukesha County Democrats in Wisconsin has over $80,000 in the bank account), it is far more often that the state party gives stipends to county parties during election years or fund offices entirely.

In the Art of War, one of Sun Tzu’s 36 stratagems is “Let the Enemy's own spy sow discord in the Enemy camp.” While the original meant to purposefully feed known spies misinformation, it can also be interpreted as spreading propaganda or turning one’s opponent against itself, more akin to LBJ’s directive: “If your enemy is drowning, throw him a brick.”

State parties have shown themselves to be critical pieces of infrastructure, especially since 2016. The worst news for Trump and the RNC is that the worst implosions are in the battleground states of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Colorado, Arizona, and Pennsylvania: most of the states he won in 2016, lost in 2020, and would have to carry for a chance at an upset victory later this year.

Wisconsin

My home state is America’s Dairyland, home to Fightin’ Bob LaFollette, and the place where amateur election analysts pull their hair out trying to figure out why Wisconsin voters don’t fully behave how they’re expected to. The Wisconsin Democratic Party is led by Ben Wikler, arguably the most successful state party chair in the country and the most battle-tested state party.

Ben Wikler. Photo credit: WisPolitics

Wisconsin Republicans have no A-tier political candidate or officeholder (Ron Johnson remains the luckiest punk in the western hemisphere) with the retirement of Mike Gallagher. Other than Johnson, they only have one statewide officeholder, the State Treasurer John Leiber, who won a fluke race by about a point and a half in 2022. Their fundraising is holding up fine with a little over a million dollars as of the January Continuing Report.

Robin Vos, Wisconsin’s shadow dictator, Assembly Speaker and weasel-faced human, faced an internal revolt from his own caucus last year. The longtime Speaker just narrowly avoided facing an embarrassing recall effort from his constituents last week. To even have the recall effort in the first place, especially given how safe his seat is, borders on humiliation.

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Minnesota

To say that the Minnesota GOP is in trouble is like saying that ducks like water. At one point in 2023, the party only had $53 in its bank account and over $400,000 in debt. A conservative Minnesota PAC is being accused of misusing donor money. How severe was it?

They spent $0.00 on candidates in 2022.

This doesn’t include the fact they’re only recently settling a second internal leadership clash. On November 16, 2023, former state chair Jennifer Carnahan and the Minnesota GOP ended their suits against each other. Carnahan’s was related to alleged reputational loss; the GOP claimed that she had been such a poor leader she worked against the GOP’s interests. Not even two weeks later, a faction of the Minnesota GOP attempt to force out David Hann, the current chair.

Amy Klobuchar. Photo credit: NYT

It has been 18 years since the Republicans won a statewide election (Tim Pawlenty) and tempers are breaking into the open. Amy Klobuchar may have a challenger even less serious than Eric Hovde in Wisconsin and the MAGA wing of the state party is increasingly confrontational. To simply rebuild a winning culture, free of MAGAism and strife, could take a decade or more.

Michigan

If Minnesota is struggling, Michigan is in a death spiral.

State Chair Kristina Karamo was forced out after a lengthy legal battle where even the RNC had to intervene to ensure that Pete Hoekstra was properly recognized as chair. Karamo was accused of financial mismanagement and that her conspiracy theories had hurt the party. Believe it or not, despite the RNC’s direct engagement, Karamo still attempted to call herself state chair as late as February 27th where a judge ordered her to stop doing so.

Despite all this, the Michigan GOP still could not unify around a single leader. On the March 2nd Presidential Primary, there were planned “dueling conventions” in Detroit and Grand Rapids. Karamo canceled her convention in Detroit one day before Super Tuesday as she encouraged her supporters to “live to fight another day.”

Hoekstra and Karamo. Photo credit: Andrew Roth and Anna Liz Nichols

Finances are a complete mess and the party did not even make the January reporting deadline for the Michigan Bureau of Elections. The Michigan GOP burned almost 90% of its cash on hand throughout 2023, ending the year with just shy of $250,000 on hand. Without money, the Democrats may be able to breathe a little easier due to their opponent’s chaotic internal problems.

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Unfortunately, dear readers, I am at the end of Substack’s length limit. I plan on covering the rest of the states on Thursday. I will also have out the Senate “state of the race” piece on late Tuesday or Wednesday as a paid subscriber exclusive.

I’ll see you then!