The Senate Seats that Will Make or Break A Democratic Majority

January 29, 2024

Wow! January has blown by! We are about nine months away from the general election and we already know that it will be a Trump/Biden rematch. I don’t think any election has been this reluctant or unwanted in American history.

While the Presidency is a powerful institution, much of the Biden Agenda will be impossible to implement without an agreeable Senate and House-but I feel very good about the House. Let’s take a look at the potential Senate maps; at least up until the maximum realistic expectation.

50/50: Dems Hold the Line

It is impossible for the Democrats to retain their Senate majority without Sherrod Brown, Jon Tester, and Jackie Rosen retaining their seats in Ohio, Montana, and Nevada, respectively. Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Wisconsin are also critical, but Casey and Baldwin both have unique and powerful brands within their states that I feel much better about their races than the states as whole. Kari Lake running on the Arizona GOP ticket should also provide enough protection for the Democrats.

51/52: True Patriots in Control

Florida and Texas would be the next flips for Democrats. While winning both is unlikely, winning one or the other isn’t that far out of mainstream thought. Both Ted Cruz and Rick Scott are highly unpopular and demographic shifts plus the continuing Dobbs fallout put both races in the “all-in” category next to the three mentioned above.

Florida boasts the best possible recruit for the Democrats in that state, former Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. The first South American immigrant elected to the House, she would be the second Latina-American elected to the Senate (Cortez-Masto; Nevada). A key point in Bill Nelson’s 2018 defeat was how much he took the Hispanic demographic groups for and how hard Rick Scott worked for them-Nelson was very late in setting up Spanish-language TV/radio ads or Spanish-language mailers. DMP would at least have an opportunity to push back those loses.

In Texas, there are two strong candidates: former NFL linebacker and current TX-32 Congressman Colin Allred versus Texas State Senator Roland Gutierrez. Allred touts his work in the Obama Administration as well as his bipartisan credentials around gun safety, infrastructure, healthcare, and trade. Gutierrez highlights his work representing Uvalde after the massacre, mental health access for veterans, and providing resources to survivors of sexual assault.

Of the two, I’d give the edge to Allred in the general.

53/54: Democratic Tsunami

This is the peak map for Democrats. Biden would have to win by something in the ballpark of 8-10 points and Democrats would need Republicans to self-implode (to be fair, the GOP Senate recruits haven’t done well of late, consistently underrunning the top of the ticket).

Missouri is more likely than Nebraska to flip, I think. Not only has Missouri voted Democratic more recently than Nebraska, but I suspect Hawley will underperform due to his visible embrace of the protofascist right and January 6th activities. Deb Fischer of Nebraska is much more under-the-radar and stereotypical Republican.

Missouri’s Democratic primary is technically three candidates, but only two matter: Lucas Kunce, a veteran of the Marine Corps, and State Senator Karla May. December Harmon is the third candidate, who is a member of the Columbia Police Review Board. St. Louis County prosecutor Wesley Bell dropped out to primary Cori Bush.

Fischer faces Independent Dan Osborn, who led the Kellogg’s strike in 2021, winning increased wages and better benefits for workers. A labor leader, Osborn focuses his message on economics. The lone poll suggests a potentially competitive race. Nebraska is the only state in the country that has both a unicameral legislature and requires its candidates to be nonpartisan, though political parties back candidates. It is believed that the Nebraska Democrats will back Osborn rather than run their own candidate.

There is no doubt that 2024 is a pivotal year for our Republic. If you have the extra cash, I would donate now to Brown, Tester, and Rosen. Do not, under any circumstances, give your money to anyone in California. Your dollar does the most good holding the line in Nevada, Ohio, or Montana. I’d rather see your money go to State Senator May in Missouri or Osborn in Nebraska before anyone else on the coasts gets a dime.