The State of the Presidential Race: May 2024
May 21, 2024
There has been a lot of news and primaries the last six or seven weeks, but not much of a change overall. While there have been a flood of polls, the ones that I follow and know to be reputable have seen some movement toward Biden. Wisconsin and Pennsylvania have remained strong for him, whereas Georgia seems to slightly favor Trump at this point in time. Before we get started:
This is a snapshot in time. These ratings will change over time.
Senate forecast to come one week after Presidential forecast. No House forecasts due to chaos.
Dobbs continues to be a very motivating factor.
No major third party.
Ratings based on likelihood to win, not margin. No tossups.
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