The State of the Senate Race: March 2024

March 19th, 2024

Ohio’s primary contest is tonight and all eyes will be watching to see who will face Sherrod Brown in the general election. Brown is arguably the most embattled Democrat (the only one who gives him a run for his money is Jon Tester) and if the GOP nominee is Bernie Moreno, the conventional wisdom is that Brown has a much better shot.

Before jumping in, let’s go through the ground rules:

1. This is a snapshot in time. These ratings will change over time.

2. Dobbs continues to be a very motivating factor.

3. No major third party.

4. Joe Manchin does not come out of retirement for spite.

5. Ratings based on likelihood to win, not margin. No tossups.

Thirty-three states are up in November, but we’re only going to be looking at a couple. The sad fact is that due to the decline in split ticket voting, most of these contests have been decided already. This Class I Senate map is undoubtedly the most friendly to Republicans.