The States and Counties I'm Watching and When

There’s something absolutely beautiful about a blank election map. It has the promise of a fresh tomorrow, an America working united toward a common goal. Of course, the great misconception is that the Electoral and Senate maps are blank pages. There are 13 states with electoral votes up for grabs (including Maine’s 2nd Congressional District) and 10 Senate seats without an obvious winner.

If you’d like to look at FiveThirtyEight’s schedule of the evening and call it a day, check it out here. Similarly, NPR laid out their own schedule of when polls close. I’m not going to dive into Florida and Texas, as they are not true battlegrounds, even if they would be icing on the cake.

I will say this, though: if Kamala sweeps all seven of the battleground states, things could get interesting.

Credit: New York Times

With so few states truly in play, I want to focus on those states and counties that have the biggest impact. If you’d like to get a nationwide breakdown of each county and benchmarks to figure out who is winning, check out this interactive tool. I’ll include references at the end.

Pennsylvania

The Keystone State is the key to the Electoral College. Polls will close at 8 PM EST. Counties to watch: Montgomery, Allegheny, Cumberland, Lackawanna, Cambria, Erie, and Northampton.

Of these, Erie is the swingiest county of the biggest indicator state in this year’s election. Whoever wins Pennsylvania will, in all likelihood, win the election.

Michigan

The home of the Wolverines allows voting until 9 PM EST. The key counties to watch are: Wayne, Macomb, Oakland, Washtenaw, Kent, and Saginaw.

Wayne County is home to Detroit and Dearborn, while Washtenaw is home to Ann Arbor (University of Michigan).

Wisconsin

The Badger State’s polls will close at 9 PM EST. Outside of Dane and Milwaukee counties, the WOW counties (Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington), Brown County, and La Crosse County will prove telling.

The WOW counties are traditionally the bedrock of Republican support, but having been moving leftward as education polarization has taken hold. If Ozaukee hits about 48% and/or Waukesha breaks 43% for Harris, I don’t see how Trump can win in Wisconsin.

Credit: Cook Political Report

North Carolina

The Tarheel State only allows voting until 7:30 PM EST, but it is the best hope at a pickup for the Harris-Walz ticket. Wake, Mecklenburg, Union, Robeson, Henderson, and Carrabus counties will be the big ones.

Interesting notes: Biden was the first Democrat in decades to lose Carrabus County by single digits. Union County was the largest county in NC that Trump won, so even a couple point improvement will pay dividends.

Georgia

The Peach State similarly closes early to my Midwestern standards at 7 PM EST. Gwinnett, Hall, Clayton, Chatham, Columbia, Peach, Cobb, Fulton, and DeKalb counties will largely determine the fate of this battleground state.

While Fulton county gets a lot of the attention due to Atlanta, the collar counties of DeKalb, Gwinnett, Clayton, and Hall shouldn’t be overlooked. Fulton County plays a similar role to Dane County in Wisconsin-in a close race it can pull the state over the finish line, but it needs help.

Arizona

The Grand Canyon State is open until 9 PM EST. While everyone focuses on Maricopa County, Pima, and Pinal counties deserve attention, too. Pima is traditionally Democratic and Biden netted over 39,000 votes in 2020. Pinal County is usually a strong Republican county. Trump will have to do better here and cut into Maricopa County to have a chance to flip the state back into his column.

Nevada

The Silver State has two counties to watch: Clark and Washoe. I can never get the latter’s pronunciation correct, for whatever reason. While roughly 2/3 of the votes will come from Clark, Washoe has gone with the presidential winner every election since 2024. It is the swing county.

Credit: The Messina Group

While I remain confident that Harris will overperform the polls, it’s entirely possible that I have the wrong read on the Election, along with most others. I’ll be glued to my TV screen with my laptop open, cross-referencing each major county at their county clerk website or Secretary of State website.

See you there, friends.

For Further Reading

These swing-state counties are key to understanding the presidential race (NPR)

15 Battleground Counties to Watch in the 2024 Presidential Election (U.S. News)

The seven counties that will help explain the 2024 election (NBC)

8 key counties that could decide the Trump-Harris election (Yahoo)

The five key states that could decide the US presidential election (France 24)