The States to Watch on Tuesday

The Selzer Poll on Saturday night added fuel to the fire that Democrats are feeling: the hope that There is Something Going On that the polls and pundits are missing. If nothing else, it is responsible for making this article longer than it otherwise would’ve been. Selzer is an excellent pollster and when she produces an outlier poll, she’s very rarely wrong.

Let’s look at the states with the most outsized influence the next 2-4 years.

The Blue Wall

Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin will decide this election, with the Keystone State almost guaranteeing the winner. Per FiveThirtyEight, Pennsylvania is the tipping point state and narrowly favors Trump. The three states have voted together in every election since 1992 (PA voted for Bush in 1988; MN voted for Mondale in 1984) and while I believe Michigan will vote to the right of Wisconsin this year, I think all will vote Democratic. They also have Senate races. Should a Republican win any of the three, it will be almost impossible for the Dems to maintain the Senate.

North Carolina and the Battleground Sun Belt States

Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada all went for Biden in 2020 after Arizona and Georgia stayed with Republicans in 2016. Jon Ralston, who is nearly an oracle in the state of Nevada, is sounding the alarm about the Republicans’ firewall of 44,000 votes over Democrats. This does not include “Others,” which he thinks Harris would have to win by 5 or 6 points to carry the State.

It’s interesting since all the available polling has Democratic Senator Jacky Rosen up by high single digits over Sam Brown. Either the Senate polling is off or Harris is winning over a substantial number of Republicans. I refuse to believe that there’s going to there’s going to be between five and eight points of ticket splitting, especially with the fallout from the Puerto Rico comments.

North Carolina is one of two Democratic “white whale” states, alongside Texas. Should Harris win North Carolina, Trump would have to make up those 16 Electoral College votes somewhere. This gets substantially harder if Georgia would go to Harris. Arizona has been polling in Trump’s direction most of the campaign, but I struggle to see how Arizona’s voters split their ticket by voting for Trump, for Gallego, and for the abortion rights referendum.

Heartland Correlation and Maine’s 2nd

Friend of the blog Zac Harmon found that the middle and western portions of Midwest plus the Great Plains and Mountain West swing not just together but also in the direction of the popular vote. This would include (in addition to Wisconsin), Iowa, Kansas, Montana, Missouri, and Nebraska on my map. Once again, the Selzer poll looms large, but it’s not totally alone-a poll released last week found Trump winning Kansas by five points. Trump carried Kansas by nearly 15 in 2020.

Besides the presidential margin, we’re going to be watching the Nebraska regular Senate election and Montana election. I have Independent Dan Osborn as the “Dem” 50th seat and Tester clinging on for the 51st seat in my Race for the Majority rankings.

Maine awards their Electoral Votes in a way similar to Nebraska, utilizing congressional districts. The question that Maine’s 2nd can answer is Trump’s support in among rural voters. If he loses it after carrying it by about 7.5% in 2020, that could portend a long night for the Republicans.

Democratic Dreams

Florida, Ohio, and Texas all have very competitive Senate races and two (FL and TX) could narrowly flip blue under the best possible circumstances at the presidential level and at least two very competitive Senate seats (OH and TX). We should know early on if there’s any chance of an electoral blowout for Harris based on Pinellas and Hillsborough counties and the Senate majority.

I do expect Sherrod Brown to narrowly win, despite Ohio’s reddish hue. I don’t think you can extrapolate too much about Ohio from the Selzer poll; it doesn’t have the same sort of demographics. Ohio Democrats similarly struggle with juicing turnout from the “Three C’s,” which artificially depresses Democratic support: Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Columbus. Should voters show up in large margins, maybe another upset is possible.

One way or another, all of these states will give us an answer.

Programming Note

As I mentioned earlier, I’ll be putting out three articles on Election Day. They are listed at what time free subscribers will have access to them; paid subscribers will have access to them an hour early as my thanks for financially supporting this venture. It means a lot.

Electoral College predictions: 10 AM CST

Senate predictions: 1 PM CST

Watching Election Night Like Me: 5 PM CST