Trump's First Trial Ends With Conviction. How Will That Affect the Race?
June 3rd, 2024
We have seen in the last decade and a half major democratic backsliding worldwide. Belarusian dictator Aleksandr Lukashenko removed any doubts about his true desires, Modhi’s BJP is in the midst of an effort to turn India from a tolerant and secular state into one based on Hindu nationalism, and Viktor Orbán has gutted any hope for democracy in Hungary. This doesn’t even get into crackdowns in Iran, Netanyahu’s decimation of the Israeli constitution, the military coup in Myanmar, and other hotspots around the world.
Since Trump was first indicted, one debate raged on: Is it better to indict Trump and show that no one is above the law, or is it better to do nothing because this sets as a dangerous precedent?
I have always been on the side of indictment if the evidence supported it. The rich and powerful have gotten away with committing major crimes with little more than a slap on the wrist. This two-tiered justice system has contributed to the backsliding of American democracy. Trump’s conviction was not simply cathartic for more than half the country; it can rekindle some hope and faith in our criminal justice system.
Donald Trump after the guilty verdict. Photo credit: Bloomberg News
A discussion of restoring faith in the justice system and how to stop democratic backsliding throughout the globe will have to wait for a different article. Our goal to today is to answer one question: How will this conviction alter the presidential race?
Possibility 1: This is good for Trump
The thought around this possibility is fairly simple: with Trump’s conviction, Republicans will fall into line behind him and previously anti-Trump Republicans return to the fold. A series of unscientific polls have already flooded social media, predominantly on Twitter, in an effort to sell this message.
The only evidence we have at this point that Republicans are starting to get energized off of this is that their small-dollar website crashed due to the sheer number of people looking to give to the Trump campaign. It raised nearly $53 million in first the 24 hours after the conviction. The other part of this theory is that lower-turnout voters will see this as a five-alarm fire and show up in swarms on Election Day to save the Glorious Leader.
Trump acknowledges supporters. Photo credit: Financial Times
Possibility Two: This will only marginally matter
The idea that this will not affect the race in major way is based on the notion that Americans are so fed up and married to their political tribe that nothing can shake them loose. That is a very lazy assessment, especially since we’ve seen people cross the partisan aisle, with the two most stark being the repeated, nationwide and statewide response to Dobbs and Presley’s performance in Mississippi. We are in the midst of a political realignment that pits exurban voters and evangelical conservative Christians against everyone else.
I will concede that most Americans will either vote in favor or against Trump. That being said, I think that those states with the highest percentage of swing voters will see the largest change in state result, even if the electoral college is pretty predictable.
Possibility Three: Biden Blowout
This idea is rooted in the idea that American voters will now, after a conviction, rise up and decisively reject Trump, leading to Biden winning a series of states that Democrats usually don’t play in, or at the very least force Trump out as the GOP nominee. I would say this is hopium bordering on delusion. Certain prognosticators have put forth this theory since 2015 with no basis in fact. There is no reason to be this optimistic in 2024. We know it’s going to be close.
Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg. Photo credit: NBC
So what’s Nate’s take?
While Trump’s followers will fall into line, it wasn’t his followers that the RNC or he was worrying about. Rather, I think the anti-Trump Republicans will see this as further vindication of their resistance. Even if Trump wins back 85% of those voters, that is still a catastrophic loss when a major party nominee can count on 95% of the party falling in line.
The conviction will motivate Trump’s low turnout followers to show up on Election Day. This will also push independents away from Trump and Republicans. I believe that these independents are more concerned about the appearance of supporting someone with conviction and than the policies, but because they want to retain their social good graces, they will force themselves to vote third party or for Biden.
The first test of this theory will be tomorrow night, June 4th. Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota have their Republican presidential primaries. I will be watching the victory margins once again to see if Trump underperforms Biden yet again.
