We are in the midst of special election season! While these races by themselves cannot predict how each state will vote, they can tell us, when combined and thrown into an average, show us the overall national political environment if the election were held today. Based on the hard work and tracking by Ethan C7, we are living in a more Democratic environment than November 2020.
I put more emphasis on special election results than polls. Special elections are actual results, polls can be manipulated by any number of methodologies or phrasing or framing. We saw this most clearly in October 2022, when a suspicious volume of Republican-backed partisan polling flooded news agencies, claiming a massive Republican wave that never materialized.
So, without further ado, let’s go down the line of upcoming races for the next couple of months.
August 3rd, 2023
Tennessee House Districts 3, 52, and 86
These are a smattering of races. House District 3 went for Trump by a staggering 64 points. Expelled Rep Justin Jones seeks to reclaim his seat in HD 52’s special election; a safe Dem seat. House 86 is expelled Rep Justin Pearson’s seat and he will be running unopposed.
August 8th, 2023
Ohio Issue 1
Ohio’s Ballot Issue 1 will attempt to move the goalpost of public indicatives-like the abortion rights initiative scheduled for November-to requiring 60% passage for adoption. This is essentially a “shadow initiative,” whereby passing this with 50.1% of the vote will hamstring efforts to support abortion rights and other measures. I expect this to fail.
August 22nd, 2023
New Hampshire House 16
This seat will be swaying control of the New Hampshire General Assembly as it is currently deadlocked. The seat jumped 14 points in 2020, giving Biden a 30 point margin.
September 14, 2023
Tennessee House 51
This safe Democratic district will be held after incumbent Bill Beck passed away. The last contested election was 2018, where an independent ran against Beck and garnered 18% of the vote.
September 19, 2023
New Hampshire House Rockingham 1
The incumbent, Republican Benjamin Bartlett IV, resigned due to health issues. The primary will be held on August 1, 2023. This is expected to be a very close race and one of the ones I am most eager to see the results of.
Pennsylvania House District 21
The special election was called after Sara Innamorato (D) resigned on July 19, 2023, to run for election for Allegheny County Executive. She won by 27% in 2022, so while it should remain in Democratic hands, it’s not guaranteed.
Additional Upcoming Elections
These are the last special elections until the 2023 general elections. Right now, things look very bright for Democrats, but this is only a moment in time. Do not take these results as inevitable or proscriptive-we still must organize, vote, and make sure that Democrats win up and down the ticket. The alternative is an apparatus even more loyal to Trump.