Who is the 4th Defector?

It’s been a week since Trump took power. It feels like a decade. In the midst of pardons for insurrectionists, various executive orders, and the first few Cabinet Secretaries getting confirmed, one question is starting to take shape:

Who would the 4th Senate Republican defection be?

As of the writing of this article, the Senate consists of 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and 2 independents that caucus with Democrats (Bernie Sanders and Agnus King).

So why do we care about 4? Shouldn’t we focus on just three?

That’s a fair question with a simple answer: Republicans can afford to lose three Republicans on any vote and still have JD Vance cast the tiebreaker. Of course, this assumes that all Democrats stick together, there are no absences, and JD Vance doesn’t rediscover his spine.

McConnell, Murkowski, and Collins voted against Hegseth as SecDef. Credit: Times of India

In the Hegseth confirmation, McConnell was the third “no” vote and Tillis was very nearly the fourth before coming around. Murkowski and Collins, like usual, were the first two in the ranks of GOP defectors. Murkowski has left the door open to becoming an independent.

McConnell is unlikely to be a consistent third “no” vote, but he is most likely to oppose Trump in foreign affairs. Unlike the MAGA orthodoxy, McConnell is firmly against isolationism and believes that America must honor her international commitments, especially to NATO and our Asian allies in the face of a rising People’s Republic of China.

Using the Heritage Foundation’s scorecard, the third-least conservative Senator was Mitt Romney in the 118th Congress. This makes a lot of sense, especially considering Romney’s sense of propriety and personal hatred of Trump. He opted not to seek re-election and retired.

Former Senator Mitt Romney. Credit: Getty Images

Between Romney and McConnell is not exactly what one would call a bastion of liberalism or independence: John Cornyn (TX), Senate Pro Tempore Chuck Grassley (IA), Todd Young (IN), and John Boozman (WY).

Between McConnell and Heritage’s 40% “conservative” score are Mike Rounds (SD), Majority Leader John Thune (SD), Shelley Moore Capito (WV), and Thom Tillis (NC). I find it very unlikely that Thune would openly buck a priority from Trump, so I’m going to keep him out of the list. Ditto Grassley.

If this list looks a little bleak, that’s because it is. I don’t think that there’s two other Republicans in the entire caucus that actually believe in limited government/low taxes/self-reliance way of thinking outside of Murkowski and Collins, and I’m not too sure on the latter (and I’m setting aside their voting record on corporate issues for the moment).

119th Senate breakdown. Credit: Washington Post

So who are the 3rd and 4th Republican defectors?

I don’t know. I don’t think anyone knows, either. I suspect that this will be an issue-by-issue basis, with the greatest potential for pushback coming in foreign policy or military “reforms.” McConnell has already put himself out there by voting against Hegseth.

In most other issues, the wise thing for Thune to do would be to pull a bill so that the vote doesn’t even reach the Senate floor and force Republicans to make a tough vote. At least, that’s what I’d do and what McConnell did as Majority Leader.

Even though the path ahead isn’t easy, no one is giving you permission to stop contacting your legislators. Get your friends to help. Fifteen or twenty emails on any one topic gets some attention. Ten phone calls gets their ears pricked up. If you really want to scare them, get half a dozen friends and handwrite letters. That shows commitment.

When A. Phillip Randolph and the Brotherhood of Sleeping Car Porters visited the White House at the height of the New Deal, the met with FDR about several issues, including discrimination in the workplace. Roosevelt, ever the history-teacher-in-chief and believer in the power of ordinary people, stopping them towards the end of the meeting. “You convinced me,” he said. “Now go out and make me do it.”

They did.

Now too do we have an opportunity to meet the challenges of our own time.