Who Makes the Trump VP Shortlist?
February 5th, 2024
Sometimes the devil you know is better than the devil you don’t. But what happens when the devil taps someone as their deputy? What factors would the Father of Lies look for in a subordinate?
Those are the questions that we should at least take a moment to try and answer before diving deep. The last eight or nine years we’ve seen Trump berate, belittle, and destroy anyone that slightly criticizes him. We’ve seen longtime stalwart Republicans sent into the void over a single disagreement. Only yes-men and henchmen remain. I’m keeping these factors in mind when hypothesizing what a potential short list might look like:
A Trump loyalist through and through
Someone who will swallow their pride and remain invisible
Someone who has never spoken against Donald Trump
This rules out many of the conventionally well-qualified Republicans: the (remaining) statesmen, the battleground state survivors, and those with large bipartisan appeal. No Brian Kemp, no Mitt Romney (no surprise there, but I digress), no Mike DeWine. Unlike most of the left-wing blogosphere, I do not underestimate Trump. An evil genius he is not (just evil), but he does have a knack for inflaming the worst in Americans and can push the national buttons like few others. In short, he has a finger on the pulse.
I suspect that his pick will have the appearance of being more moderate and a mid-tier resume. I don’t believe he wants someone overly young and ambitious that the GOP can rally around as an alternative if there was ever a hint of doubt in his ability to lead. I don’t think this person would be a fire-breathing anti-choice candidate either; Trump knows that is a losing proposition, especially if they were also fond of demonizing LGBTQ youth.
Axios reported earlier today that Trump was considering a number of people for the Vice Presidential nomination. While Tim Scott, JD Vance, and Henry McMaster are on that list, I discount them: McMaster is too old (76), Vance does not have enough experience, and while Scott has endorsed Trump, I suspect this is another ploy to see a former rival humiliate himself like the Mitt Romney interview in 2016.
I also don’t buy that Trump is tipping his hand this much. Here’s four potential candidates.
Kristi Noem, Governor of South Dakota
Kristi Noem does not have the national spotlight to win without a major boost from Trump. As Governor of one of the smallest states in the Union, she cannot take major, transformative steps that will fundamentally change the country like a Gavin Newsom or a Ron DeSantis. Instead, she has made her name on the same culture war issues that appeal to and mirror Trump, like masking. She has backed up Trump’s claims of voter fraud in the 2020 election. While she may be to Trump’s right, I don’t think many would see her as a potential rival, given how dependent on his good graces she would be.
Elise Stefanik, Congresswoman NY-21
For several years Stefanik was one of the more moderate Republicans until the first impeachment inquiry into then-President Trump. Once the caucus booted Liz Cheney from leadership, Stefanik embraced the Trumpian way hook, line, and sinker, eventually taking Cheney’s Conference Chair position.
Stefanik has made mention of her disagreement with Trump on certain issues like family separation or banning Muslims from entering the United States early in his administration, but has stopped short of actually condemning him. She is also more moderate on abortion and LGBTQ rights, supporting the Equality Act. As a Congresswoman, she would not typically be able to make the jump to serious presidential contender without a few terms in the Senate or Governor’s mansion-something hard for Republicans to achieve in New York.
Dr. Ben Carson
If you want someone who stays invisible, I can’t think of anyone more invisible then Ben Carson. Having served as Trump’s HUD Secretary in the first term, Carson largely stayed out of the public eye and I couldn’t tell you what he did without looking it up except for that weird table scandal. The one-time presidential candidate doesn’t seem to have a natural constituency and would undoubtedly be a yes-man. Other than being an evangelical Christian, I don’t see what’s in his policy portfolio. Some of his statement have clashed with modern medicine or history.
Shelley Moore Capito, West Virginia Senator
This wouldn’t be the first time the junior senator of the Mountain State would appear on one of these lists; she was competing with Pence up till the very end. Moore Capito would come from one of Trump’s strongest states and would be a visible symbol of Trump’s claim of supporting the working class, given West Virginia’s poverty and economic base. She aligns with most of Trump’s views on trade and immigration. Given that she made a deep run last time, I could see her breaking through in 2024.
As one of my friends just texted me “Trump puts the anything in anything is possible.” I wouldn’t be overly shocked if he picked Ivanka or Don Jr. to be his VP nominee. I doubt we will see who it is until convention, but Trump has never been conventional.