Who Might - and Won't - Be Kamala's VP?

July 29, 2024

By the time the shock of Biden’s Sunday announcement had faded, it was late Monday and speculation turned to who would run with Kamala Harris as the Democratic Vice Presidential nominee. While many names have been thrown out as suggestions, I think many can be ruled out for one reason or another.

Ultimately, there’s only a couple who could serve without risking downballot or succession issues in their home states. As the media scrambles to report on every leak, I think that this may be like Biden’s revelation of Kamala as his VP: a major effort to throw reporters off the scent when many politicos suspected Harris of being the pick the whole time.

I believe that Harris has already made her choice and is trying to keep the media attention on the process in order to deny Trump political oxygen. We should expect an announcement before the convention.

Biden and Harris embracing. Photo credit: NBC

A source near the Harris campaign has said that they are considering a dozen different candidates. Unlike the West Wing, there will not be a Leo McGarey figure to serve alongside Kamala. This means that Mayor Pete, Gina Raimondo, or former Louisiana Congressman Cedric Richmond will not be the eventual nominee. Historically, the VP selection has only been worth a point or two in the nominee’s home state, but has served as a symbolic unifying figure.

In other rare circumstances, the VP nominee has actively hurt the ticket, like Sarah Palin in 2008. I suspect when all is said and done, JD Vance will be in the same category. Even less common is a VP candidate that helps the ticket, like Teddy Roosevelt to McKinley.

Kamala Harris in Milwaukee. Credit: Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

Three serious candidates can be discounted already: Gretchen Whitmer, Gavin Newsom, and Roy Cooper. Whitmer has stated her desire to finish out her term as Governor of Michigan. Gavin Newsom is all but ineligible under the Twelfth Amendment. Cooper bowed out earlier today.

Outside Looking In

JB Pritzker is on the outer fringes. As Governor of Illinois, he has actually balanced the budget (a nice change for The Prairie State) rather than relying upon cash-on-hand accounting gimmicks. He also worked to enshrine the right to unionize into the state constitution, expanded reproductive healthcare and gender-affirming care, and put the state on sustainable financial footing.

He has two major drawbacks: he comes from a safe blue state and his biggest asset is his net worth; a staggering $3.5 billion. Considering VP Harris’s campaign raised almost a quarter billion dollars in one week on ActBlue alone, I do not believe that his wealth will be as useful as it might otherwise be.

Succession issues: None

Illinois Governor JB Pritzker. Credit: Wikipedia

The buzz for Arizona Senator Mark Kelly never seemed to take off. Despite flipping one of Arizona’s Senate seats as well being known as the husband to former Congresswoman Gabby Giffords and a former astronaut, he drew the ire of many labor leaders and unions for his opposition to the PRO Act.

Given how important unions are to the Democratic Party, this is a non-starter. Kelly, the only Senator on this list, also has to consider what might happen to his Senate seat if Kamala were to win the presidency. Typically, the President’s party suffers defeat in the midterm to some degree. With Arizona’s swing state status, it is far from a guarantee that this seat would remain in Democratic hands.

Senator Mark Kelly. Photo credit: AZPM

Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro is the last major candidate in this outer fringe. He won his governorship in decisive fashion and should Vice President Harris look to shore up the Rust Belt, he makes for a good pick on paper. Unfortunately, for as wide as Kelly’s problems are with labor as a whole, Shapiro has doubled down on fighting against public education.

Shapiro is a major proponent of voucher schools, even allocating $100M for it in a 2023 proposal. Ultimately, the pressure from Democrats in the state legislature forced him to shelve the plan. Pennsylvania also faces a myriad of succession issues should the hypothetical Harris/Shapiro ticket win.

Issue: Lt. Gov. becomes new Governor with election in 2026. The President Pro Tempore becomes the new Lt. Governor (Kim Ward, Republican). The Lt. Gov. breaks ties in the State Senate.

PA Governor Josh Shapiro. Photo Credit: NBC

Top Contenders

Minnesota Governor Tim Walz is a very progressive governor. Relatively young at 60 years old, he has a fairly impressive record for being so unknown nationwide. In the 2023-2024 legislative session, Walz signed paid family leave into law alongside legalizing marijuana, free school lunches, codified abortion rights, and signed universal background checks into law.

Unlike some of the other names on this list, he has a minimal national profile. That, and coming from a blue state, would be the two biggest strikes against him.

Succession issues: None

Minnesota Governor Tim Walz. Credit: KSTP

Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear has become an almost-overnight sensation on Twitter. The son of Steve Beshear, himself a very popular Kentucky Governor, the younger Beshear defeated a sitting Republican governor and the sitting attorney general four years later. While Beshear is working with a hostile State Legislature, that hasn’t stopped him from major accomplishments, including restoring voting rights to nearly 200,000 ex-felons, over $400M in clean water investments, and expanding healthcare access for 400,000 Kentuckians.

Beshear hasn’t been a quiet Democratic, if bipartisan, governor. In addition to defending a woman’s right to choose in the Bluegrass State, he’s standing up for the LGBTQ community, especially trans youth. He also walked the picket line and provided sandwiches to workers during UAW 862’s strike in Louisville. Beshear will be term-limited out and unlike JD Vance, is actually from Appalachia.

Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear. Credit: The Nation

Who Should It Be?

It’s gotta be either Walz or Beshear. I think that while Walz would make a strong choice and provide a clear balance to the ticket, I think Beshear is the better choice. If we’re making this a referendum on turning the page, making a case to fully hand off the torch to the next generation, Beshear looks the part and has the guts to match. Walz, despite all my affection for him, doesn’t look the part.

Walz, I think, would ensure a victory. Beshear might help pull off a decisive win and retain the Senate.

Vice President Harris. Photo credit: White House