I originally expected to write and publish this on the 2nd, but then the lawsuit dropped. Read that here!
Tammy Baldwin is an electoral force of nature. In a true battleground state, the closest in the nation, she keeps winning by landslides in a state where 3 points is considered a blowout. In 2018, she beat Leah Vukmir by 11 points and in 2012 she defeated Tommy Thompson by 5.5 percent.
While that pales in comparison to then-Senator Herb Kohl’s rout of all other candidates in 2006, the question must be asked: Who will the GOP set up to be a sacrificial lamb this year?
Photo credit: Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
Obviously Tammy Baldwin won’t be completely unopposed, but she may be functionally unopposed. By that, I mean that there will be a candidate with an R next to their name, but they have no chance of victory and will not be a serious candidate. Let’s take a look at candidates who have passed on this race before examining those who have publicly expressed interest.
A Tier
Mike Gallagher, 8th District
Widely viewed as the strongest potential candidate against Senator Baldwin, Gallagher made everyone’s ears prick up by passing on the race relatively early on. Gallagher has a pretty good favorability rating among the Republican base, considering 70% haven’t heard of him, and is a strong fundraiser. While there is widespread speculation Gallagher may run for Governor in 2026, personally I think that he is eyeing Ron Johnson’s Senate seat in 2028. I think foreign policy is that important to him personally.
Credit: Marquette Law Poll
B Tier
There is a major drop off between A Tier and B Tier.
Fmr. Governor Scott Walker
Wisconsin’s expired mayonnaise packet belongs here because of his status as Wisconsin’s last major statewide Republican officeholder, excluding Johnson. He is a one-time darling of the right wing and had a respectable electoral record. Fundraising would not be much of an issue for him. All that being said, Wisconsinites rejected him at the ballot box in 2018 and comeback efforts don’t often end well.
Congressman Bryan Steil, 1st District
Steil is a bit of a nonentity. He doesn’t make a lot of headlines, even when it comes to things in his hometown of Janesville, which is definitely a detriment. It does, however, give the average voter the capability to project their hopes on him and take vague statements he makes any which way they choose. He does not have a lot of money on hand compared to other candidates. He could make things closer than they should be, but ultimately would not prove strong enough.
C Tier
C Tier gets the base and a point or two more. That’s about it.
Fmr Lt. Governor Rebecca Kleefisch
Kleefisch was Scott Walker’s second-in-command and a GOP gubernatorial candidate, ultimately losing the nomination to Tim Michels by 5 points. While perceived as a “moderate” compared to Michels, Scott Walker has admitted that she was more conservative than he is.
Congressman Tom Tiffany, 7th District
Derided as “Toxic Tom” across the 7th, Tiffany seemed to be on a glide path for the nomination once the other major names backed out. Then the campaign finance reports dropped. All of a sudden, Tom Tiffany stepped aside despite buying the domain name for a senate bid. The Wisconsin GOP and/or National Republican Senatorial Committee lost faith in him.
2018 results by county. Credit: SplitTicket
All the heavyweights have passed along with most of the middleweights. Among those who have stayed mum include:
Sean Duffy, former Congressman of the 7th Congressional District (C tier)
Rachel Campos-Duffy, Sean’s wife and former Fox News host (F tier)
Kevin Nicholson, perennial candidate and businessman (D tier)
Reince Priebus, former Trump Chief of Staff, WI GOP chair, former RNC chair (D tier)
Roger Roth, former State Senator and lieutenant gubernatorial nominee (D tier)
Declared Candidates and/or Publicly Speculating
Now this is where things get fun. None of these candidates are higher than a D Tier candidate, which I view as underperforming the base partisanship of the state. For reference, I assume 44% of the state is GOP, 46% is Democratic, and 10% swingable.
D Tier
David Clarke
There’s been a lot of buzz about Clarke entering the race, but not in a complimentary way. The former Sheriff of Milwaukee County is a polarizing figure, even in the law enforcement community, and was at one point rumored to become a part of Donald Trump’s Department of Homeland Security (at least, according to Clarke himself). As of late, he’s been making rounds on podcasts and speaking right-wing “journalists,” asking people to donate to his campaign. No campaign committee with his name has been registered with the FEC.
Eric Hovde
I debated hard whether or not to put him in the D or the F tier. In the same vein as Tim Michels, Hovde is not a Wisconsinite-he lives in California-but ran in Wisconsin’s Senate primary as a Republican in 2012. A hedge fund manager, he would certainly have the resources to burn, but its an expensive hobby to run headfirst into the meatgrinder.
F Tier
These candidates are happy to have their name on the ballot, are a third party candidate, or just not serious in any way, shape or form.
Phil Anderson
The declared Libertarian candidate, Phil Anderson, has been a perennial candidate for a wide range of offices in Wisconsin. He supports ending aid to Ukraine.
Patrick Schaefer-Wicke
I have not been able to find a single thing about this candidate. It appears that he may have a campaign committee being processed, but even his LinkedIn is not publicly viewable. Ditto for his Twitter.
Scott Aubart
The sole American Independent Party candidate, Mr. Aubart does not appear to have a campaign website, but his Facebook is public. His statements there are markedly anti-Trump. He also ran for Senate in 2022 as a write-in.
Tim Ramthun
Ramthun is an election conspiracy theorist that served two terms in the Wisconsin Assembly. At the time, endorsed by Mike Lindell, Ramthun ran for Governor of Wisconsin, receiving about 6% of the Republican primary vote and has hinted at a future gubernatorial bid. In a since-deleted tweet, he winked at a run for Senate:
And now has sent out similarly vague tweets:
Fundamentally Unacceptable
From time to time, there are candidates that espouse ideologies so hateful that they must be set apart. I’m not giving this man any promotion, but wanted to include him so that he can be immediately discredited.
John Schiess is a fascist, a white supremacist, and an antisemite. His campaign site is full of conspiracy theories, hateful ideologies, and views that have no place in today’s society.
I will not be posting anything from his site here.
Who Would Be “Strongest”?
Strongest is a relative term here, sort of like asking if the third grader or the fourth grader was going to finish in the better position at an Ironman Triathlon. My guess would be Hovde, if for no other reason than he can self-fund and lacks Clarke’s baggage.
Ramthum would lose to Baldwin by 30 points on a good day for him.