Will the House GOP derail the election?

While it may be hard to believe, there’s a fair amount of governing that still needs to be done in an election year. The biggest single item remaining in 2024 is the continuing resolution, designed to keep the government open until the next Congress. That’s right-the government could shut down in 13 days as people are voting.

Earlier this year, the Congress passed a continuing resolution. Last week, Speaker Mike Johnson was forced to remove his continuing resolution from the docket in the face of a right-wing revolt of up to 15 Republicans. The Speaker can afford to lose four Republicans on any particular vote if he refuses to reach out to Democrats.

Speaker Mike Johnson. Photo credit: CNN

Johnson has stated that he wants to this to be a piece of Republican-only legislation in recent weeks, but we will see if such a thing is possible. Donald Trump, trying to do his best Grover Cleveland impression, has made Johnson’s already exceedingly difficult task nigh impossible by wading in. Trump essentially ordered Republicans to abandon the CR unless it was linked to the “voting reform” put forth in the SAVE Act, just in time for general election mischief that would substantially favor the Trump-Vance ticket.

This comes on the heels of Trump promising the “largest deportation in history” and racist fearmongering lies about Haitian immigrants eating cats and dogs in Springfield, Ohio. Ohio Governor Mike DeWine is sending in Ohio State Troopers after 33 bomb threats were made in a week to various locations in Springfield, including schools.

Trump’s Truth post urging the Republicans to shut down the federal government

We do not have a great idea of how a shutdown would impact the overall election. For certain, the Republicans would bear the brunt of the blame. Moderately engaged voters still remember the absolute humiliation of Kevin McCarthy and the monthlong saga to get to Mike Johnson as Speaker. The House GOP is dysfunctional on the official side and that doesn’t event get into the everyday absurdity of Marjorie Taylor Greene or Lauren Boebert.

I suspect that the GOP would lose a substantial number of the tossup seats both today and the closer we get to Election Day, as well as a fair number of Likely Republican seats. A shutdown might be enough to save Tester, push Allred over the top, or doom Rick Scott (or none of those situations bear out) as voters punish Republicans en masse. In the same vein, it would also widen Kamala Harris’s electoral map as battleground states swing slightly toward her, making it safer to play in red states.

Cook Political Report’s Battleground House Map

There are two possible ways the government would shut down: the House fails to pass a spending bill in time, or the one they pass is so abhorrent that the Senate refuses to even consider it or votes it down immediately. If Johnson wishes to make a deal with Democrats, his chance of success increases dramatically; I see very few ways for him to navigate this successfully if he wants only Republican votes.

It might be the only way that the government stays open is if Johnson works with Democrats. The Republican Party is no longer the “Daddy Party,” they are the deadbeat dad party.

48 days to go. See you on doors.