Battle for the Heartland's 2024 Electoral College Predictions
The time has come! After more than $10B spent over the course of nearly 23 months, Americans will make their voices heard. A new President and a new Congress will be elected.
For those of you tuning in for the first time, here is my prediction from eight days ago.
As a reminder, this is the Biden-Trump map:
Trump’s best chance to win is through the Sun Belt plus one of the Rust Belt states. I believe that Michigan will vote to the right of Wisconsin this year, but I am including what Trump’s best possible map will look like.
I also wanted to sit down and map out the best possible Harris map, at least within the bounds of rationality. Unfortunately we will not see a blue Wyoming, but in the best possible circumstance, Kamala cracks 400 EVs compared to Trump’s hard ceiling of 312.
A poll for Alaska was released on Sunday showing Trump leading by four.
Before I dive into my actual prediction, I want to lay out a few rules that I live by when trying to divine the map:
Never bet against Ann Selzer in Iowa, no matter what.
Assume the Culinary Union will keep Nevada blue until proven otherwise.
Never disagree with Jon Ralston. If he disagrees with the Culinary Union, defer to the Culinary Union.
Do not buy into the hype of Texas or North Carolina. They will flip when they flip.
Florida will always break your heart.
There will always be at least one random state flipping no one sees coming.
Marquette Law Poll is the only pollster than can poll Wisconsin well.
Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania will vote together.
I do want to hear your comments and thoughts. Please add to the conversation!
The below map is by victory margin:
Tilt indicates within one point
Lean is between 1-5 points
Likely is from 6-14 points
Safe is 15 or more points
Without further ado:
Yep, I broke one of my own rules. Welcome to Team Blue, North Carolina! The Research Triangle and Black rural farmers finally overcame the opposition.
See you all in a few hours with the Senate forecast and in the evening with how I’m watching Election Night.