How Does the Electoral College Look Today?

Eight days left. No more ads, a new president, a new Congress, and the destiny of America decided. 2024 is the most consequential election of our lives. I look forward to the day where elections are less about the survival of democracy and freedom and more about policy discussions.

I’ll have more to say about why I think that Kamala will overperform the polls in my Wednesday article, but suffice to say, I would rather be in the Harris-Walz camp than the Trump-Vance one. The likelihood of Trump flipping enough states to win is less than Harris winning a major victory (about 350 electoral votes). Regardless of the likelihood, let’s first take a look at Trump’s only real path to victory: Sunbelt + MI or WI.

For what it’s worth, I view Michigan as slightly more likely to flip in 2024 than Wisconsin, but that’s entirely a subjective judgement. This would also assume stronger-than-expected GOP performances in Arizona, North Carolina, and Florida. Texas would remain the GOP firewall, but still trend slightly leftward. What would a Harris landslide look like?

This is what I judge to be the best possible outcome for the Democratic ticket. If there is Something Going On that every poll is missing, it would probably include a discussion of a major realignment because white working class voters would have to launch leftward while Hispanic voters vote at levels more akin to Black Americans. Harris would almost certainly bring 53 or 54 Senate seats with her was well as over 250 House seats, a feat not seen since Obama’s 2008 victory. This is the dream that all Americans rise up together and defeat Trumpism forever.

I view this particular map as highly unlikely, but I think getting Texas is more likely than Trump winning. So what would the map look like today, if the election was today?

We need to embrace uncertainty here. I originally had North Carolina in the Tilt D camp, but took it out for one very good reason: it’s a white whale. It’s the same reason why I have Nevada at Tilt D: I will never bet against the Culinary Union until it’s defeated. We need to understand that this election is going to be, in all likelihood, very close. It will probably come down to 50,000 votes in the Blue Wall and Nevada.

If you are concerned and feeling anxious, the best thing for you to do is to knock doors and make phone calls or send texts. The next best thing is to donate to State and County parties in the key battleground states. The third best thing you can do is write postcards.

Our democracy depends on it. You are the cavalry, the hope you’ve been waiting on.