For those of you volunteering I have done phone and text. Text is harder as the audience are3 less likely voters in most cases. Phone gets lots of no answer but most people are polite. Text not so much.
I mean, everything here seems to be “gut feeling” more than actual data or analysis. *why* is Harris set to win 350 electoral college votes more likely than Trump winning the election? What factors indicate this?
I’ve heard people talk about early votes, but they have skewed Dem before as Dems vote early more often. GOP voters have ended up being the guys that show up in person more often now. While Dem registrations have cratered compared to GOP registrations compared to 2020. It is going to come down to who can rally their low probability voters more; Trump or Harris?
I mean, Harris can still win even with those large margins, but what factors are suggesting that and how is a landslide more likely than a trump win?
Texas will go red, until it doesn't. I've lived here for over 60 years. Check back in 8, or 16 years. You need more migration from CA for that to become a reality.
Living in the Midwest, it’s much more about economic security, basic civil rights, and legacy. That’s why it’s so 50/50 all the time, Wisconsin especially.
And why the corporatist Dems have wasted a lot of that goodwill: we’ve been taken for granted without much help. But most will vote for Kamala because fascism is worse
For those of you volunteering I have done phone and text. Text is harder as the audience are3 less likely voters in most cases. Phone gets lots of no answer but most people are polite. Text not so much.
Text, (check); Phone Bank, (check);
Volunteer, Vote early, (check);
Great analysis!
Thank you!
Just to let you know 80+%of Brits want Harris to win. Good luck to the Democrats!
This seems rather fantastical. Doesn’t really cite anything either.
I mean, everything here seems to be “gut feeling” more than actual data or analysis. *why* is Harris set to win 350 electoral college votes more likely than Trump winning the election? What factors indicate this?
I’ve heard people talk about early votes, but they have skewed Dem before as Dems vote early more often. GOP voters have ended up being the guys that show up in person more often now. While Dem registrations have cratered compared to GOP registrations compared to 2020. It is going to come down to who can rally their low probability voters more; Trump or Harris?
I mean, Harris can still win even with those large margins, but what factors are suggesting that and how is a landslide more likely than a trump win?
Texas will go red, until it doesn't. I've lived here for over 60 years. Check back in 8, or 16 years. You need more migration from CA for that to become a reality.
Sheesh. There is not a single person mapping the electoral college who has it going like this. Good luck.
If you’d like to read the full article, it’s here: https://battlefortheheartland.substack.com/p/how-does-the-electoral-college-look?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
Living in the Midwest, it’s much more about economic security, basic civil rights, and legacy. That’s why it’s so 50/50 all the time, Wisconsin especially.
And why the corporatist Dems have wasted a lot of that goodwill: we’ve been taken for granted without much help. But most will vote for Kamala because fascism is worse
Nah. Just go ahead and try to send a few between now and E Day