Battle for the Heartland's Senate 2024 Senate Predictions

Well, friends, welcome to the second article of the day. One more will be published today, in the evening before polls close.

The Republicans should have a commanding advantage in the Race for the Senate. While I’d rather be the Republicans than the Democrats, the Democrats are far from dead yet. Like my Electoral College predictions, I will be showing three possibilities: best case for the Republicans, best case for the Democrats, and where I think things will end up.

Here is the current Senate, showing Sinema as the lone independent.

Rating System Review

Tilt: within one point

Lean: 1-5 points

Likely: 6-14 points

Safe: 15 or more points

GOP Best Case Scenario

The best case scenario for the Republicans would broadly follow a Trump victory and raw partisanship taking out Jon Tester while saving Deb Fischer in Nebraska. In this case, I foresee a total collapse in Michigan and Wisconsin, with Bob Casey narrowly holding on in Pennsylvania and Nevada’s Jacky Rosen barely eking out a win. I don’t think Kari Lake wins in Arizona under the GOP’s best possible circumstances given how disqualifying she is.

Best Case for the Democrats

Just like the best case for the Republicans, this is predicated upon a landslide by Kamala. I have previously made the case for Harris overperforming the polls, and I stand by that. In this scenario, she absolutely shatters them. The Sun Belt and Rust Belt would hold.

Tester would hold on due to a Libertarian taking six or seven percent of the vote, coupled with massive college turnout and picking up just enough Republicans to win by a half dozen votes (slight exaggeration). Lucas Kunce would come out of nowhere to knock off Josh Hawley following a Ted Cruz defeat at the hands of Colin Allred and Rick Scott getting upended by Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in Florida.

Note: For the sake of simplification, I have marked Osborn in the Democratic column.

So How Will Things Shake Out?

This is the hardest Senate map for Democrats out of any of the three Senate Classes. For reference, this is Senate Class I. Paradoxically, it also has the strongest Democratic incumbents with their own strong, unique brands. I expect Baldwin, Casey, Rosen, and Tester to easily outrun Harris.

It’s probably easiest to show how the majority may or may not fall by seat.

Seat 45: Bob Casey (PA)

Seat 46: Jacky Rosen (NV)

Seat 47: Tammy Baldwin (WI)

Seat 48: Elise Slotkin (MI)

Seat 49: Sherrod Brown (OH)

Seat 50: Dan Osborn (NE)

Seat 51: Jon Tester (MT)

Seat 52: Colin Allred (TX)

Seat 53: Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (FL)

Seat 54: Lucas Kunce (MO)

So, without further ado:

If Tester ends up falling, I will eat a lot of crow and I’m good with that. Many analysts say that Sheehy will be carried by Montana’s raw partisanship-and for the record, we are talking about an R+17 state in 2020. The votes in Big Sky have big consequences.

As far as Fischer goes, she’s done an excellent job trying to lose, on par with Bill Nelson in 2018. Osborn has been polling within the margin of error for the last week and, combined with the Selzer poll on Saturday, it just might prove enough.

It could just as easily be 51-49 GOP or 50-49-1 GOP, like below. But, like the Culinary Union in Nevada or Ann Selzer in Iowa, I will not bet against Tester. He has excellent political instincts, the Democrats have some momentum, he’s closing strong, and I think he has enough magic for one more term.

I’ll be back in a few hours. See you then!