The Case for Kamala Harris Overperforming the Polls

The polling, especially of late, shows a completely tied race with Harris as a narrow favorite to win the Electoral College (I opt to link to Split-Ticket because I agree that state-level polling is more indicative than national polling, like FiveThirtyEight). As the media focuses on the horserace and tries to continue to normalize Trump-especially billionaire newspaper owners-there remains one fundamental question:

What if the race isn’t that close?

I’m not talking about a ten point margin; that’s a pipedream. A four or five point win, however, is much more likely. Biden won by a little over four points in 2020. Kamala could do just as well. There are a few factors that make me optimistic about her odds.

Credit: CNN

1: Dobbs continues to motivate

It’s no secret that the Supreme Court overturning Roe in 2022 was the defining issue of the midterm election and has been a major issue ever since. It is an issue that Democrats are banking on, not just in the presidential race, but all downballot races: Senate, congressional, and state elections. The gender gap may grow to a record this year. Combined with turning out more than men every year since 1964, women may vote more Democratic than expected.

2: The “Puerto Rico” non-joke at Madison Square Garden

For once, I think something might stick. At Sunday’s Madison Square Garden rally (a 1939 redux), a roast comedian called Puerto Rico an island of trash. The blowback was so bad that the Trump campaign itself walked back the "joke" publicly! When was the last time that happened?!

Photo credit: Washington Post and Census Bureau

Five major Puerto Rican celebrities came out and endorsed Harris since Sunday. By far, the most important is Jennifer Lopez, but even the Puerto Rican Republican leader has stated he will withhold his vote for Trump during the island’s unofficial presidential vote unless Trump publicly apologizes. Twitter, TikTok, and Instagram were flooded with revulsion and condemnation of Trump by Puerto Ricans, political leaders, and celebrities across the country.

In Pennsylvania alone, there are more than 600,000 eligible Latino voters, with 470,000 of them identifying as Puerto Rican. Even a relatively small backslide in Puerto Rican support has the potential to damn Republican senate hopes in Florida, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Nevada. A larger defection could deliver Texas and Florida to Harris, setting up an electoral landslide.

3: Early Turnout Is Blowing Prior Benchmarks Out of the Water

Look, delving into the early vote trying to read the tea leaves is very similar to leafing through polling crosstabs: extremely hazardous and prone to substantial error. Do not do this. Folks like Tom Bonier at TargetSmart may try, but I’m very skeptical of anyone outside of Jon Ralston in Nevada and Joshua Smithley in Pennsylvania. Anyone else should be held at arm’s length.

What early voting has the potential to tell us is voter enthusiasm: how motivated are people to vote? In Missouri, the first five days of early voting exceeded the four weeks of 2020 early voting and mail combined. On the first day of early voting in Michigan, over 140,000 people exercised their right to vote. Over three million have already voted in Georgia. In Ohio, Democratic counties are blowing out Republican ones.

This could be evidence of Democrats cannibalizing their Election Day turnout, given their emphasis on mail and in-person early vote. I want to be totally clear, Dear Reader, you are aware that usually Dems do better in mail and in-person early vote while Republicans win Election Day turnout.

The cannibalization hypothesis doesn’t necessarily comport with what Toby MG is finding in our home state of Wisconsin, however. Republican counties are doing quite well in the early vote, but it’s nearly a perfect 1:1 of counties that Nikki Haley did well in. Counties that Trump dominated in are still lagging. Neither of us can say for certain what this means.

Photo credit: Toby MG. Used with permission.

As Joshua Smithley explained in a very good thread, states don’t necessarily have the ability to process mail and early in-person ballots at this volume. Accept that in all likelihood, there will be a red mirage in many states on Election Night while clerks and poll workers make their way through the mountain of ballots. Be patient and expect a long night. Milwaukee, for example, may not get all their mail ballots processed before midnight.

4: Walking In the Footsteps of Our History

In 2016, Donald Trump won 46.1% of the vote. In 2020, it was 46.8%. 2018 saw Democrats carry the national vote by 8.6%, winning back 40 seats in the House despite losing a net of two Senate seats, all of which were in deep-red territory. In 2022, Republicans won the national vote by 2.8%, losing one Senate seat but gaining 9 House seats, barely enough for a majority. It should have been a bloodbath for Democrats, but after Dobbs, Americans (led by women) refused to reward Republicans with power. The so-called “red wave” was contained entirely in Florida and New York. Many (including me) believe that the incompetent leadership of Sean Patrick Maloney at the DCCC, the New York Democratic Party, and the Florida Democratic Party cost Democrats two Senate seats (Wisconsin and North Carolina) by triaging Congressional races, depressing turnout.

Do you see what I see in those numbers?

We will not go down without a fight. We will never accept an authoritarian, a fascist, to lead us. If I may borrow from President Biden, this is a continuation of the battle for the soul of America. This is one we will not lose.

The sons and daughters of the Iron Brigade will take up their positions not on the battlefield, but in the polling booth throughout the Midwest. Pennsylvania’s citizens will feel the inaudible song of the Liberty Bell and heed the call. Georgians, North Carolinians, and Americans throughout the fruited plain and in the shadow of the mountains’ majesty will cast their votes for democracy. We’ve never caved to any struggle.

Not during our Revolution.

Not in the effort to extinguish the evils of slavery.

Not in the struggle to organize, even against the army.

Not against Hitler’s Germany, Tojo’s Japan, Mussolini’s Italy, and other Axis states.

Not in the pursuit of civil rights, the defense of civil liberties, and expanding the “We” in “We the People.”

Not against the Soviet Union and today’s authoritarian rivals.

I don’t believe for one second that this is a tied race. It might be close, sure. But our national history, imperfect as it is, shows us who we: a people who make progress too slowly, a people who sometimes wander off-trail, but a people who reach for the stars and can bend the world to its will, given the chance.

We have the things Trump fears the most: hope, each other, and something worth fighting for.

5: Declining Base

Trump’s base is declining. I wrote about how Trump was losing a substantial amount of support in the primaries earlier this year. At the time, I wasn’t entirely sure if that meant anything, but I figured it had to mean something. The Washington Post found that most of Trump’s base is older and more conservative now than in 2016. Since then, over 200 Republicans have endorsed Harris, giving cover to the undecided and moderate voters struggling with their choice.

I do not expect a mass defection, but a few points will make all the difference, especially in a swing state. Trump is a known quantity and very few people like him, with Gallup finding only 38% of people rating him as likeable vs 60% for Harris. While likeability is hardly a requirement of politicians, I believe they are more likely to vote against the known quantity, a la Hillary in 2016.

You have until Tuesday to make a difference. Vote. Knock doors. Make phone calls. Send texts. Democracy depends on YOU.