Open and record is restricted in Pa but not the political affiliation of requested and returned ballots. The question becomes how many registered voters who vote the other way still submit under the same party?
It’s certain that 4.5% of early voters made requests as Unaffiliated but made returns as Republicans, as there are 15% more Republican returns than were actually requested!
This 4.5% is exactly the same as the 2020 poll shortfall. In spite of that huge uplift, and the older ages dominating returns, Democrats still lead by 2% so the end result will be higher than that for Harris.
Well, it sure feels different in Texas this time. Remember: tomorrow is Roevember 1!
I’ll be dropping my final prediction on Tuesday morning. I also wrote a case for Kamala overperforming her polls yesterday
https://battlefortheheartland.substack.com/p/the-case-for-kamala-harris-overperforming?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
Early voting only shows party affiliation and not who person cast their ballot for
Sometimes not even that, depending on the state. I don’t follow too much EV analysis for this exact reason
https://medium.com/@rickpenney/early-voting-latest-surprises-51273de9ce96
While this *could* be true, we simply don’t know yet and can’t extrapolate too much
Actually these are actual votes, not extrapolations. Once you hit 50% of the vote it’s hard to change votes very much.
It depends on the state- Pennsylvania is not allowed to tabulate some ballots until Election Day - https://www.npr.org/2024/10/22/nx-s1-5157599/al-schmidt-pennsylvania-elections-official-on-voting-process
Open and record is restricted in Pa but not the political affiliation of requested and returned ballots. The question becomes how many registered voters who vote the other way still submit under the same party?
It’s certain that 4.5% of early voters made requests as Unaffiliated but made returns as Republicans, as there are 15% more Republican returns than were actually requested!
This 4.5% is exactly the same as the 2020 poll shortfall. In spite of that huge uplift, and the older ages dominating returns, Democrats still lead by 2% so the end result will be higher than that for Harris.
Some states have one ballot for general election that is not dependent on political affiliation
https://medium.com/@rickpenney/early-voting-latest-surprises-51273de9ce96
Even if Harris only wins NE-2 and the Blue Wall, that’s 270. But I think the polls are underestimating her slightly