The Electoral College Map As of Today

With 17 days till Election Day, early voting has started in many states. In fact, 97% of voters will have access to early voting; only three states offer mail as the only option to early vote (and requires a qualifying reason): Alabama, Mississippi, and New Hampshire. There is quite a bit of early voting underway already:

• Georgia’s Secretary of State expects over 700,000 votes cast after day three

• Michigan has over 857,000 absentee ballots returned already with Detroit launching early voting on Saturday the 19th

• Pennsylvania has 1.7M ballots requested and nearly 700,000 returned

Credit: CBS News

While polls are still helpful in determining the national mood and state-by-state results, we are getting actual votes. Bad faith actors are pointing out that due to the large drop-off of early vote requests compared to 2020, 2024 will be good for Trump. They’re trying to whitewash covid just like January 6th.

As a very, very general rule, the more early votes cast, the better things will be for Democrats.

My assumption is that this will be a close election. I also think it’s more likely that Harris wins in a blowout than Trump wins, period. This is not a guarantee. We should continue to be on the doors and making calls until the polls close!

I’ll show you my map first, then analyze.

I always go with “no tossup states” view in my maps because this is not purely based on polls, nor am I a Data Guy who has built a model from the ground up. I have nothing but the deepest respect for those who do in-depth modeling, especially the folks at SplitTicket and FiveThirtyEight.

There are a handful of states that will decide the White House:

• The “Blue Wall” of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania

• The Sun Belt states of North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona

• Nebraska’s 2nd District

There’s also been interesting numbers out of Florida and Texas, but if Harris wins both, she’s got a significant chance winning Ohio, Maine’s 2nd CD, and one or two of Kansas/Iowa/Alaska. Winning Florida or Texas would put her in in “landslide territory” and in all probability bring the Senate with her-something that she absolutely needs to do literally anything she’s promised (for what its worth, the first thing I’d do would make Puerto Rico and DC states, but that’s just me).

Harris has been consistently leading in the Blue Wall and NE-2, which by itself would bring her to victory. While she’s also been leading NC periodically, North Carolina is one of the Democrats’ “white whales” alongside Texas. In short, I’ll believe it when I see it, but it’s tantalizingly close.

Trump seems to be benefitting from new strength in Georgia and has been keeping it close in Arizona, but his Achilles heel in the Grand Canyon State is Kari Lake, the GOP Senate candidate. I’ve made the claim that Arizona is more of an anti-Trump state than a blue state in the past and I expect enough people (a few thousand) to turn out to vote explicitly against Lake. If they also vote for Harris, that would be enough to win Arizona.

Nevada is to the GOP as North Carolina and Texas are to Democrats: a mirage. While it is definitely trending to Republicans, the Culinary Union defies the demographic destiny year after year. Like North Carolina and Texas, I’ll believe it when I see it.

Democracy is a verb. Freedom and rights are never given, they are always taken.

Keep the faith. Knock the doors and make the calls.

We’re in this for the soul of America, to turn the page, and to redeem the promise of democracy.