The State of the Senate Race

The Republicans are in a very advantageous position to retake the Senate. With the West Virginia Senate seat guaranteed to flip from Dem to GOP due to Manchin’s retirement, Republicans only need to net one more seat to get an outright majority (51). Should Kamala win, Walz would cast the tiebreaking vote in a 50/50 scenario. Things are not looking good for embattled Montana Democratic Senator Jon Tester, the next-most likely GOP gain.

There are 34 Senate seats up on Election Day. For my fellow political nerds, this is the Senate Class I plus the Nebraska Special Senate Election. Ironically, this map pits some of the Democrats’ best electoral overperformers (Jon Tester of MT, Sherrod Brown of Ohio, Bob Casey of PA, and Tammy Baldwin of WI) against the most favorable map for Republicans.

Some of you may wonder why I have Maryland as a Likely Dem state or Pennsylvania as a Lean D state. I will almost always hedge toward a state being more competitive than less (except for Mississippi and Florida, as a general rule).

Unlike other forecasters, I am not trying to hit the margin of victory with my maps. I’m trying to illustrate the likelihood of victory, which I think spurs better discussion than trying to debate the final margin.

Safe Seats (22)

There’s no surprises to be found here.

California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Maine, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, Virginia, Vermont, and Washington will deliver 14 seats to the Democrats.

Likewise, the states of Indiana, Mississippi, Nebraska (special), North Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming will send 8 Republicans to the Senate.

Just like that, there’s only 12 at least semi-competitive seats.

Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar will cruise to re-election. Photo credit: Getty Images

Likely States (4)

Among these four, the major outlier is the Likely Dem state of Maryland. It went for Biden by 33% in 2020 (65.8% to 32.4%) and even if the Republican candidate, former Governor Larry Hogan, overperforms by 15 points, he’d still only garner 47% of the vote. Over $84M has been raised for this race.

It is because Hogan has won election twice that I have this race as Likely, but I expect Angela Alsobrooks to win quite comfortably.

Florida, the state where Democratic hopes go to die, features Republican Senator Rick Scott against Democratic nominee Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (DMB). Historically, Scott is an underperformer and strongly disapproved of. In the FiveThirtyEight tracker, Scott leads DMB by nearly five points, complimenting a recent Florida Atlantic University poll finding Scott up four. While seemingly competitive, I haven’t seen much investment from the DSCC, so I would doubt DMB is doing as well as the polls are indicating.

Missouri is a ruby-red state featuring Republican Senator Josh Hawley of January 6th infamy and Democrat Lucas Kunce, a Marine-turned-lawyer. Despite the state being semi-competitive only 12 years ago (Romney won it by 9 in 2012), it has lurched to the right. Early voting has been quite high in Missouri, specifically in St. Louis County, but it remains to be seen if one or both sides are cannibalizing their E-Day turnout or if this is a sign of higher than usual turnout.

In Nebraska’s regular Senate election, Independent Dan Osborn is squaring off against incumbent Republican Deb Fischer. Osborn, a former labor organizer in the Kellogg’s strike of 2021. He has run a masterful campaign, painting himself as an outsider and co-opting conservative rhetoric to win over independents and enough Republicans to win. If Fischer wins, it will be off partisanship alone. In the special election, former Governor Pete Ricketts is leading Democrat Preston Love, Jr. by 18 percent.

Independent candidate Dan Osborn. Credit: The Nation

Tossups (6)

In Arizona, Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego is running against famed election-denier and failed gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake. Losing the governor’s mansion by just 17,000 votes in 2022, Lake showed that she had real appeal in the Grand Canyon State. While her denialism has undoubtedly cost her support, we won’t know how much until all the ballots are counted.

Michigan’s Senate race features Congresswoman Elise Slotkin running against former Republican Congressman Mike Rogers. Rogers served in Congress for 14 years, retiring in 2014. Slotkin has been consistently leading in the polls, but with Detroit expecting to exceed its 2020 turnout level, Slotkin may get a little extra cushion.

FiveThirtyEight

The Silver State, Nevada, has incumbent Democratic Senator Jacky Rosen squaring off against Sam Brown. Rosen has made abortion the defining feature in her re-election bid. Brown does not exactly have a deep well of support in Nevada, finishing runner-up in the 2022 Nevada GOP Senate primary after losing a Texas legislative primary a few years earlier. Adam Laxalt, who defeated Brown in 2022, has labeled him as a carpetbagger.

Pennsylvania’s Democratic juggernaut, Bob Casey, is in a fight against the Connecticut carpetbagger David McCormick. Funded by a network of billionaires, Keystone Renewal PAC has spent $52M in a combination of anti-Casey and pro-McCormick content. McCormick, however, has made several self-inflicted errors, such as cheering for the Steelers while in Philadelphia, home to the Eagles. The post is still up on Twitter.

Texas, the lone Republican state on this list, boasts a clash of epic proportions: Senator Ted Cruz and Congressman Colin Allred. Many remember how close Beto O’Rourke came to defeating Cruz in 2018, where Cruz’s 2.6% victory margin underran Dan Patrick’s gubernatorial victory margin by 2.2%, which in turn underran the Glenn Hagar’s Texas Attorney General win by almost five points. Both Cruz and Patrick were very flawed candidates. Texas is shifting bluer, so if there is enough anti-Cruz sentiment, Allred could pull it off.

Colin Allred. Photo credit: Houston Public Media

Wisconsin’s Senate race is one of the most expensive and frequent target of outside candidates. California banker Eric Hovde decided to try and do what Tim Michels could not: win as a carpetbagger. Baldwin arguably pulled Tony Evers over the finish line in 2018 and she has a knack for winning over enough independents and Republicans to outrun the national environment. Hovde is putting up a strong fight, though.

Majority Makers (2)

While things aren’t looking good for Tester right now, I am unwilling to write him off yet. He typically is aided with the Libertarian candidate receiving between four and six percentage points. This year’s candidate, Said Doaud, is claiming that the Montana GOP is trying to force him off the ballot or get him to drop out of the race. Combined with an abortion referendum on the line, maybe Tester has it in him one last time.

While Brown is consistently leading in Ohio, he can’t quite seem to put Bernie Moreno away-and that’s far better than we expected. Brown outran the Democratic gubernatorial nominee in 2018 by about 7 points. Moreno is relying on Mitch McConnell to carry him over the finish line, tying up funds that could be otherwise used to expand the map. Brown, like Baldwin, has a history of overperforming via ticket-splitting.

Sherrod Brown. Photo credit: Sherrod Brown

Important Note

While writing this article, Ann Selzer’s poll was released, showing Harris winning Iowa by 3 points. I respect Seltzer tremendously and her track record is near impeccable. It will absolutely impact my final predictions.